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Thursday, November 28, 2019

Why Do I Want To Vote For Trump?


To study the development of intellectual abilities in a monkey researchers designed a cage with a tree and hanged a banana on a branch to keep the banana high enough. Monkey enters the cage and sees the banana. He tries to jump, but the banana is too high. He tries to clime the tree, but it is covered with plastic, so the monkey just slides back. Monkey looks around and sees a stick. He takes the stick and hits the banana down. Success!
Researcher prepared the cage for the next run, placed a new banana and left. Suddenly a hungry physics graduate gets in the cage. He sees banana. He jumps, but the banana is too high. He tries to clime the tree but slides back. He starts to shake the tree, but the banana holds tightly to the branch. He keeps shaking the tree. Nothing happens. Finally, one researcher gets tired watching, switches on an intercom and says: “Hey, take a second, think it through.” “F@#k thinking”, the says the student, “All I need - just shake, and shake harder”.
__________

I want to vote for Donald Trump.

But I won’t.

My heart will not allow me to vote for such a person. My heart will stop me, because I have a belief that the President of one of the most important countries in the world should be a decent person. He or she should be knowledgeable, educated, intelligent, smart, visionary and a decisive person, too. But above all – decent. And Donald Trump is not. That is why my heart will make me vote against him.

By my mind wants me to vote for him.

My reason is not the same reason that every Trump-bro supporter has: “He may be a racists misogynist bigot, a liar, a thief, a narcissistic psychopath with a dying brain, and a traitor, but as long as he keeps kicking the Democrats in the nuts and filling offices with our people, HE'S MY GUY!”

No.

My mind tells me that in 2020 all Americans will have to chose between a bad choice and a very bad choice. And my reason tells me that Trump is bad. But he is the lesser of the two evils. In a long run, if in 2020 a Democrat will take the White House, he/she will do more damage than four more years of Trump.

Because none of the Democrats has any idea about what has gone wrong with the country and what to do about it. Moderates (e.g. Biden) simply have no vision of what needs to be done; hence, in four years there will be no serious changes in politics and economy; people will not get what they been promised; people will get even more disappointed, and America will enter the era of Trump-2.0. If an extremist (e.g. Sanders) takes the WH, American economy will fall into a state of permanent chaos; progressive extremists wants to drastically alter the fabric of American economy making it government-based; the fight will consume all the energy; people will not get what they been promised; people will get even more disappointed, and America will enter the era of Trump-2.0.

By my calculations, the chance that in 2020 a Democrat will win is very small. Progressive extremists will lose the electoral college because they are blinded by their own ideas, and do not see that those American voters who will make the difference do not want any “free stuff” promised by the progressive extremists. Americans want to feel proud of their lives, and for that they do not want charity, they want decent jobs, they want decent wages that would let them pay for things they need (including food, college, and healthcare), not be handed down by a government.

The most vocal and energetic support for the progressive extremists comes from youngsters. There is nothing wrong, or strange, or new about it. Young people inherently are prone to extreme ideas. For example, review the history of the Cultural Revolution in China. If you don’t know that history, but you care about politics – search it and read about it. If you don’t know that history, and do not care about politics – you deserve Trump.

Anyway, the point is, none of the progressive extremists will be able to win over enough voters in the swing states. The #1 question that progressive extremists should ask themselves but don’t is “why did people who voted for Obama then voted for Trump?” Hence, they will not get those votes.

A moderate Democratic candidate also will not have an appeal strong enough to attract voters who in 2016 switched to Trump from Obama. In 2020 the psychology of that voter will be “Yes, Trump is awful, but economy seems fine, I'm doing OK, why shake it?”

My personal vote for Trump or against him will not make any difference. He will almost certainly win. Even though, there is a strategy that would guaranty the victory for the Democrats. But in order to develop and to pursue that strategy Democrats need to have people who have all four following traits: smart (to recognize and accept the most important aspects of economic and political reality), visionary (to be able to design a long-term multi-step poly-version plan of actions), bold (“having balls” to make risky decisions), powerful. Evidently, such people don’t exist. I’ve been writing about such a strategy for three years, and so far, no Democratic political strategist would even have mentioned something in that venue. And this is the most important reason a Democrat in the WH would be even worse than Trump – Democrats are not ready for the Presidency; they don’t have powerful people who are smart, visionary, and bold. It's bad when people cannot produce any original idea. It is even more sad when they even can't steal one from someone else.
NOTE: offering people policies that have been tried and failed in other countries is not smart or visionary, but still can be considered as bold. Governmental takeover a la “socialism” in such a country like U.S. cannot be any similar to Finland or Switzerland due the huge structural differences between the U.S. and Finland or Switzerland. Governmental takeover a la “socialism” in such a country like U.S. would be more similar to the USSR, and we all know how did it go.

People say: “Fooled me once, shame on you; fooled me twice – shame on me”. Democrats do not want to accept/believe that they have been fooled, and because of that they keep using the same foolish strategy that failed in 2016. Folk wisdom teaches - it's got to get worse before it gets better. Only when the Democrats lose again, they may finally take a hard look in a mirror and start asking hard questions, like – what did I do wrong, again?

That is why Trump’s victory in 2020 will be the best thing that will happen to the Democrats.

In full disclosure, three years ago I wrote that Trump’s victory was the best thing that happened to the Democrats, but the Democrats succeeded in proving me wrong. Well, let’s hope that the Democrats aren’t people who – in order to start thinking “outside of the bubble” –  need to be taught a hard lesson three or even more times.

Although, who knows?

People on the conservative side of politics do act like they are insane. Democrats may not be immune to the insanity, as well.

Albert Einstein said: “Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results is insanity”. And that is what the Democrats have been doing so far for all three years.

In three years after the loss, democrats did only two smart/visionary/boldly things. The first was the initiation of the impeachment hearings. And the second one just recently happened.

This is what I wrote on July 6th, 2017 in my post Peering through the fog of brainwashing: “Conservatives have been quietly building up a brainwashing media machine. If you think FOX News, or Breitbart – you are wrong. Those guys are not quiet. Think Sinclair; and check the latest John Oliver’s piece on it (https://youtu.be/GvtNyOzGogc). BTW: what do Democrats do about it? Nothing. They do not have any vision.”

The point was that republicans have been quietly building a propaganda machine on a local level, not just via national broadcasting venues. And democrats did nothing beyond screaming to each other from one national network to another one. What’s the point of screaming if people who need to hear it do not even listen to you?

But three days ago my eyes caught this title: The Left’s Plan To Counter Trump In Swing States: Fake Newspapers. If a right-wing paper uses a degrading or dismissive language, it means they are scared, it means they know that whatever they write about may matter, may make a difference. So, I checked it out. Finally, a national level Democrat turned toward a local level news production. If they have read my piece two years ago, they could have started earlier, but better late than never. Probably, too late, but still, better than never.

It also means, there is a chance that some top-level democrat may mull on the winning strategy I have been explaining for three years. I know, it requires such difficult actions like reading, thinking, and that takes time, and the dominant acting stile (or ability?) is the opposite of that. But, since things are not looking good for any Democratic candidate, maybe it’s time to stop fidgeting and take a pause for the cause?

The latest polls show no definite frontrunner among the Democratic candidates. None. This can’t be good for the Democrats. It rises the uncertainty to the dangerous level. Way too dangerous.

But why did it happen? Why people cannot yet agree mostly on one person?

Because the #1 quality people are looking for in a candidate is an ability to beat Trump. And evidently, they do not see the one. They don’t see anyone who in their eyes is strong enough to win. That is why they look for secondary features – charisma , familiarity, age, proposals, etc. And everyone finds something here and there, hence – no front-runner, everyone is good for someone.

Political strategists, pundits, analysts, operators, donors think – let’s double-down on promoting candidates, eventually people will choose the one. Of course, eventually it will happen; someone will eventually get 50% + 1 vote on the convention. But as I described before, there is no democratic candidate who can beat Trump in 2020.

But there is a strategy that will bring the Democrats to the victory in 2020.

The strategy is not about one specific candidate.

On the contrary, because no candidate can win, the strategy has to be name-independent. This is when all political strategists, pundits, analysts, operators, donors make an immediate decision that I am insane. “It’s never about a strategy! It’s always about a candidate! All we need is a good candidate!” And how has it been working out for you?

This is my absolute belief.

Whoever democrat will get the nomination on the convention will not be able to win – alone.

Democrats want Trump removed, beaten, out.

Who will do it is secondary. How it’ll be done is secondary.

Now, hear me out. As the ultimate goal, “beating Trump” is NOT the same as “wining the WH by my guy”. If this sentence confuses you – retake 5th grade math (from a good teacher). If this sentence upsets you - Grow up!

“Beating Trump” can only happen if (1) not only democrats will vote for a Democratic candidate, but (2) also un-enrolled, independent, third party voters will vote against Trump.

And for that they – un-enrolled, independent, third party voters – will need their own candidate.

Who?

Does not matter as much as how will that candidate end his/her run.

One possible scenario (there are many).

Democratic convention is over. Whoever comes the second or third makes an announcement that he/she will run as an independent.

“I still believe that I am a better choice. And I will do my best to beat Donald Trump. But I am not suicidal, and not an arrogant jerk. My Country is more important for me than anything else. If I see that people do not support me as much as needed for a victory. If I see that me running may help Trump to win, I will step aside. But that will not happen until people will tell me to do so.”

And about a month before the election day he/she steps aside and tells the supporters: “We had a good run, we did everything we could to beat Trump. But the odds are not in our favor. If we keep going, we may help Trump stay and we don’t want to have this on our conscious. Let’s give all our votes to …”

Done.

However, as I said before, there is almost no chance that Democrats would even consider this scenario. For that they would need to have people who are smart, visionary, bold, and powerful. And they don’t. That is why I can share this strategy despite my own belief that Democrats are not ready to have the WH. On another hand, if by a weird stroke of good luck, they will use my strategy and win, there is a chance they will also be open to revise some of their economic policies making those less extreme (how I described in several of my publications).


Note: I believe that when Albert Einstein said what he said, he meant a different word, not “insanity”. He was just too polite to say “idiocy” or “stupidity”. Those all are terms with a specific clinical meaning. Insanity is acting against the reason, meaning, be able to reason but choosing not to follow. Idiocy and stupidity are terms for describing people who (due to different reasons) are not capable of logical thinking.

Note: My motto (one of several) says: “Be ready to the worst-case scenario, but be happy if it doesn’t happen”. Climate change is happening but not everyone is on board with it. Climate scientists and proponents blame climate change deniers for not taking things seriously. For example, in a recent interview Noam Chomsky said With regard to the climate crisis, yes, it’s time to panic. We are in deep trouble.” These should be the defining terms of the 2020 election”. What he and others do not realize that under the cloak of a climate change denier there often may be hiding a climate change greeter, meaning, a person who wants the climate to change in such a way that people would get hurt hard. In “1984” George Orwell explains a meaning of a war as a tool for preserving a hierarchical society. But a war is just one of the possible instruments for that. The general term for any hierarchical social structure to be strong and “needed” is “tough times”. Because “tough times” require “a strong hand”. The existence of powerful people who sabotage any actions directed at slowing down climate changes is my “worst-case scenario”. And I’m afraid, progressives, democrats do not take this scenario into an account.


Note: What is the function of money? Left or right, conservatives or democrats – they all give the same answer to this question, not difference there. Money is the measure of purchasing power. Who has more money can buy more stuff. Simple! The Federal Reserve may have its own theory of economic development, and economists of progressive politicians may push for another theory (MMT, for example), but their theories only differ by how to use money (different rules for distribution), the fundamental basis is the same: money is the measure of purchasing power. What is good about a theory, any theory – it’s a theory, meaning, people wrote it. Anyone who had an encounter with science, any science, knows that theories evolve. They have a structure and that structure may change. And sometimes, a new theory replaces on old one. I believe, it is time to reexamine the answer to the question about money. Money should be considered as the measure for productive power. If money is used to just make more money it violates its function. Unfortunately, this is how money has been seen for decades – just a source of more money. This view distorts economy and skews it more and more in a favor of people who already have more money. However, if money is the measure of a productive power, it changes the criteria of how money is being used. It also affects the rules of money distribution. For example, if money is concentrated in one place, it negatively affects production in the form of overproduction. There are many questions that may need to be revisited and the answers to which may be revised.
For example:
Where does money come from?
Who, how and why decides how much money is needed to be printed?
What is the purpose of taxes?
Why do people have to work?
Do people have to work?
How to establish the value of a person?
Who establishes the value of a person?
Is wealth and money the same thing?
How to decide what is a fair?
Who decides what is fair?
… The list is long.

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